Back in 2002 when Google first got the AOL deal, it was a pretty big deal, as Google was still a newcomer, and AOL had substantial search traffic. Every time it came to renew, Google was able to pick it up. But now, it looks like it’s not going to happen. The deal with Microsoft and AOL will begin January 1, 2016.
As things stand, Google losing out on the AOL deal isn’t really going to affect them much, as AOL has only about 1% of the search traffic in the US. Now that Google has 65% of search traffic, I think Google will be alright.
With the new deal, this is good for Bing, since they only just passed the 20% share mark in the US, and AOL might give them more of a push in the right direction.